Bulgaria: incomplete transition and the erosion of post-1989 social contract

This abstract draws on findings from research deliverable D3.3 on transitions and postcolonialism, which has been submitted but is not yet published.It its written Kaloyan Velchev and Ruzha Smilova, Centre for Liberal Strategies – Bulgaria

Bulgaria’s ancien régime was established after the 1944 Soviet occupation and consolidated as a communist system with a monopoly of the Bulgarian Communist Party and a deep integration into the Soviet bloc. Initially, no negotiated SC existed, as political order relied on coercion rather than consent. From the 1960s onward, under Todor Zhivkov, rapid industrialization, urbanization, and expanded social provision produced an implicit SC based on political passivity in exchange for employment security, welfare benefits, and relative material stability.

The regime excluded and repressed specific groups, most notably the pre-1944 elites and ethnic minorities. Assimilationist policies toward the Turks culminated in mid-1980s in the “Revival Process” – the forced assimilation of Bulgaria’s Muslim population, which coincided with economic decline and undermined regime legitimacy. By the late 1980s, rising debt, stagnation, and environmental and human rights protests eroded the old consensus, while nationalist mobilization failed to restore stability.

The post-1989 transition combined elite-driven reforms with popular mobilization. Round Table negotiations and the 1991 Constitution established a new democratic SC grounded in political pluralism, peaceful transition, and European integration. High electoral participation during the early years of post-socialist transformations reflected their broad societal support. However, post-communist developments revealed persistent fragilities: growing economic inequalities, weak rule of law, and the survival of former elites in new economic roles. These dynamics have fueled populist narratives and growing polarization, indicating an ongoing erosion of the post-1989 SC.